CANADIAN CELLULAR/PCS COMMUNICATIONS MARKET REPORT
1999 EDITIONMay, 1999
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Table Of Contents
Section Page About this report viii A note on accuracy x The Canadian Cellular/PCS Market at a Glance 1 1.0 Overview/Executive Summary 2
2.0 The Canadian Cellular Equipment Market 13
2.1 Cellular Handset Shipments
13 2.2 15 2.3 17 2.4 21 21 22 26 30 31 36 38 44 45 47 53 53 54 61 62 2.5 66 66 69 70 71 2.6 72 3.0
The Canadian Service Providers
75
3.1 75
3.2 81
3.3 83 3.4 85 3.5 87 3.6 88 89 91 98 99 3.7 100 3.8 103 3.9 103 4.0
The Future of Cellular Services
112
4.1 112 4.2 113 113 114 115 116 117 118 118 4.3 119 119 120 121 121 122 4.4 122 4.5 124 5.0
Regulatory and Associated Issues
126
5.1 126 5.2 127 5.3 128 5.4 128 5.5 130 6.0
Resale and Resellers
132
6.1 132 132 133 133 6.2 133 133 136 137
| Exhibit/Figure | Page | |
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| Exhibit 1 | Cellular/PCS Phone Shipments by Manufacturer (1997-2002) | 140 |
| Exhibit 2 | Cellular/PCS Phone Shipments by Manufacturer by Region (1998) | 141 |
| Exhibit 3 | Cellular/PCS Phone Shipments by Phone Technology (1997-2002) | 142 |
| Exhibit 4 | Cellular/PCS Phone Shipments by Region (1997-2002) | 142 |
| Exhibit 5 | Typical Retail Price Ranges by Handset Type (1999) | 143 |
| Exhibit 6 | Cellular/PCS Phone Installed Base by Manufacturer (1997-2002) | 144 |
| Exhibit 7 | Cellular/PCS Phone Installed Base by Manufacturer by Region (1998) | 145 |
| Exhibit 8 | Cellular/PCS Phone Installed Base by Phone Technology (1997-2002) | 146 |
| Exhibit 9 | Number of Subscribers /Net Activations by Service Provider (1997-2002) | 146 |
| Exhibit 10a | Subscribers by Service Provider by Province (1997-2002) | 148 |
| Exhibit 10b | Subscriber % Share by Service Provider by Province (1997-2002) | 149 |
| Exhibit 11 | Cantel Features and Service Costs (1999) | 150 |
| Exhibit 12 | Mobility Canada Features and Service Costs (1999) | 151 |
| Exhibit 13a | Clearnet (MiKE) Features and Service Costs (1999) | 152 |
| Exhibit 13b | Clearnet (PCS) Features and Service Costs (1999) | 153 |
| Exhibit 14 | Microcell (Fido) Features and Service Costs (1999) | 154 |
| Exhibit 15 | Activations by Distribution Channel by Service provider (1998) | 155 |
| Exhibit 16a | Subscriber Penetration by Canadian Population (1997-2002) | 156 |
| Exhibit 16b | Subscribers by Service Type by Service Provider (1997-2002) | 156 |
| Exhibit 17 | Revenue, Minutes of use & Revenue per Sub. by Service Provider (1997-2002) | 157 |
| Figure 1 | Canadian Cellular/PCS Market - Number of Subscribers (1992-2002) | 4 |
| Figure 2 | Cellular/PCS Telephone Shipments - Manufacturers' Market Shares - 1998 | 5 |
About This Report
| At over 150 pages, NBI/Michael Sone Associates’ Canadian
Cellular/PCS Market Report, 1999 Edition is the most comprehensive study yet published
on this industry. It examines in detail, for both the equipment and service segments, such
topics as market size and growth, distribution strategies, pricing and technology issues
and usage patterns. Section 1 consists of a detailed executive summary that includes an
analysis of past and projected shipments, installed base and churn. Section 2 is devoted
to the handset and equipment manufacturers with reference to the latest technologies and
the result of particular strategies in that regard. Also included are detailed profiles of
the major manufacturers and discussions on their activities and future plans as the
industry moves toward the next generation (3G) of wireless communications. Additional
products and services including in-building wireless systems, handset rental and credit
card access round out the section along with an update on pricing policies. Section 3 chronicles the ongoing development of the two incumbent carriers in Canada and their responses to the challenge posed by the two newcomers. In turn the launch of service and the market development plans of the newcomers are examined and compared to the strategies of the incumbents. Particular emphasis is placed on recent developments in the marketplace and the effects of different airtime plans, value-added services, marketing programmes and distribution channels on revenues and subscriber growth. Next, Section 4 looks at the future of all cellular and PCS services and their place in the wireless mobile communications market. Included is an overview of 3G technology and the approach to its development taken by the different manufacturers. In particular, the ultimate resolution of diverse opinions on some aspects of the new standards, and their ultimate resolution is well chronicled. The emergence of Bluetooth, a new communications standard for mobile devices, is also discussed and its implications for the cellular industry are examined at length. Recent developments in establishing new standards for locating wireless 9-1-1 calls and the application of the Internet to cellular telephony complete the discussion. Section 5 provides the reader with an overview of current regulatory issues, including local number portability, bundling of services and the spectrum cap. Finally, Section 6 examines the concept of cellular resale and introduces the current players in this market. The substantive and comprehensive discussion is supported by 17 detailed exhibits and 2 figures that quantify the inter-relationship of these forces on the marketplace. Eight exhibits provide shipment and installed base data for handset manufacturers including projections to 2002, segmentation by province and by technology. Nine exhibits illustrate cellular/PCS subscriber data by service provider including projections to 2002 along parameters such as customer and revenue growth, provincial and technology segmentation, penetration rates and distribution channel analysis. The accuracy of the information in this report cannot be guaranteed. The information contained herein is the most recent available at the time of writing, but is subject to change. Statistics and comments on specific companies should not be construed as official statements from those companies. Rather, such information represents the opinions and estimates of NBI/Michael Sone Associates. We will be pleased to publish any demonstrably and significantly more accurate information supplied to us. As always, NBI/Michael Sone Associates welcomes comments on this report and suggestions for future editions. Please call us anytime at (416) 360-0424 or e-mail us at msone@nbicanada.com. |
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