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CANADIAN LOCAL TELECOM AND VoIP SERVICES MARKET REPORT
NBI/Michael Sone Associates
January 2009
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Table of Contents
| Section | Page |
| About this Report | V |
| 1.0 INTRODUCTION | 7 |
| 2.0 LOCAL SERVICES MARKET PARTICIPANTS | 9 |
| 3.0 THE LOCAL SERVICES MARKET SIZED | 11 |
| 3.1 Clarification and Definition | 11 |
| 3.2 Overview | 11 |
| 3.3 ILEC and Competitor Specific | 13 |
| 3.4 Growth Forecast | 14 |
| 4.0 TRENDS IN THE COMPETITIVE LOCAL MARKET | 25 |
| 4.1 Cable Company Growth - Is it Sustainable? | 25 |
| 4.2 Hosted Solutions – the Product of Choice in Uncertain Times | 27 |
| 5.0 CORPORATE PROFILES | 29 |
| 5.1 Bell Aliant | 29 |
| 5.2 Bell Canada | 35 |
| 5.3 Bell in the West | 43 |
| 5.4 Cogeco | 45 |
| 5.5 EastLink | 47 |
| 5.6 MTS Allstream – the ILEC | 40 |
| 5.7 MTS Allstream – the CLEC | 54 |
| 5.8 Primus | 57 |
| 5.9 Rogers | 62 |
| 5.10 Shaw | 67 |
| 5.11 TELUS - the ILEC | 71 |
| 5.12 TELUS – the CLEC | 77 |
| 5.13 Vidéotron | 79 |
| 5.14 Vonage | 84 |
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List of Exhibits
Exhibit |
Page | |
Market
At A Glance |
||
| Exhibit
1 |
WIRELINE LOCAL ACCESS LINES BY PROVINCE (AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2007) | 17 |
| Exhibit
2 |
WIRELINE LOCAL ACCESS LINES BY CITY (CMA) (AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2007) | 17 |
| Exhibit
.3 |
PROJECTED ILEC SHARE OF WIRELINE LOCAL ACCESS LINES BY CITY (CMA) (AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2008) | 18 |
| Exhibit
4 |
ILEC WIRELINE LOCAL ACCESS LINES (2006–2011) | 19 |
| Exhibit
5 |
LINES SERVING
ILEC CUSTOMERS (2006–2011) |
19 |
| Exhibit
6 |
TOTAL ILEC
LOCAL SERVICES REVENUE (2006–2011) |
19 |
| Exhibit
7 |
COMPETITOR
SHARE OF TOTAL WIRELINE LOCAL ACCESS LINES (2006–2011) |
20 |
| Exhibit
8 |
COMPETITOR
SHARE OF TOTAL WIRELINE LOCAL ACCESS REVENUE (2006–2011) |
20 | WIRELINE RESIDENTIAL LINES & REVENUES, BY NON-ILEC COMPETITOR, (2006–2008) | 20 |
| Exhibit
10 |
WIRELINE BUSINESS
LINES & REVENUES BY NON-ILEC COMPETITOR, (2006–2008) |
21 |
| Exhibit
11 |
WIRELINE ACCESS LINE SHARE BY SEGMENT, TOTAL MARKET, (2006–2011) | 21 |
| Exhibit
12 |
REVENUE SHARE BY SEGMENT, TOTAL MARKET, (2006–2011) | 22 |
| Exhibit
13 |
RESIDENTIAL AND BUSINESS LINE SHARE, BY PARTICIPANT, (2006-2011) | 22 |
| Exhibit
14 |
VOIP
RESIDENTIAL SUBSCRIBERS & BUSINESS LINES, BY PARTICIPANT,
(2006–2011) |
23 |
| Exhibit
15 |
VOIP RESIDENTIAL SUB & BUSINESS LINE SHARE, BY PARTICIPANT, (2006–2011) | 23 |
| Exhibit
16 |
VOIP RESIDENTIAL AND BUSINESS REVENUES, BY PARTICIPANT, (2006-2011) | 24 |
| Exhibit
17 |
BELL ALIANT: RATE OF DECLINE OF RESIDENTIAL LINES VS. REVENUES, (2007-2008) | 31 |
| Exhibit
18 |
BELL ALIANT RESULTS AND FORECAST (2006–2008) | 33 |
| Exhibit
19 |
BELL ALIANT OPTIONAL FEATURE PENETRATION (2006-2008) | 34 |
| Exhibit
20 |
BELL CANADA SEQUENTIAL QUARTER LINE LOSS | 36 |
| Exhibit
21 |
BELL CANADA’S RESIDENTIAL AND BUSINESS BUNDLES | 40 |
| Exhibit
22 |
BELL CANADA RESULTS AND FORECAST (2006–2008) | 41 |
| Exhibit
23 |
BELL CANADA OPTIONAL FEATURE PENETRATION (2006-2008) | 42 |
Exhibit
24 |
MTS ALLSTREAM RESULTS AND FORECAST ILEC (2006–2008) | 52 |
| Exhibit
25 |
MTS ALLSTREAM OPTIONAL FEATURE PENETRATION (2006-2008) | 53 |
| Exhibit
26 |
MTS
ALLSTREAM RESULTS AND FORECAST CLEC (2006–2008) |
56 |
| Exhibit
27 |
ROGERS CIRCUIT SWITCHED VS. CABLE TELEPHONY LINES, 2007-2009 | 65 |
| Exhibit
28 |
TELUS BUSINESS AND RESIDENTIAL BUNDLES | 74 |
| Exhibit
29 |
TELUS (ILEC) RESULTS AND FORECAST (2006– 2008) | 75 |
| Exhibit
30 |
TELUS
(ILEC ALTA. & B.C.) OPTIONAL FEATURES PENETRATION (2006-2008) |
76 |
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About This Report
| This is NBI/Michael Sone Associates’ tenth report on the Canadian Local Telecom Services Market. The extensive primary research that is the hallmark of all NBI/Michael Sone Associates’ reports was carried out over the past several months as the Local Services Market has undergone many changes. Information, both quantitative and qualitative, was analyzed and organized so as to provide the reader with a detailed understanding of the background, current state and probable future of the local services sector. The final product, Canadian Local Telecom and VoIP Services Market Report, 2008 Edition, is the most detailed research report available on this industry. The local services market will experience a myriad of developments over the coming months that NBI/Michael Sone Associates will continue to track. Following an introduction and definition of Local and VoIP services and participant sectors in Sections 1 and 2, NBI/Michael Sone Associates provides detailed quantitative data in Section 3 that measures the size of the market, the growth for incumbents and new entrants in both the business and residential sectors over a six-year period (2006 to 2011), and forecasts the share of the market by lines and revenues to be held by the various participants. Included as well are forecasts for the VoIP market, segmented by industry sector (ILEC, cableco, etc.) and by business versus consumer. (It should be noted that all reference to “lines” within the report refers to wireline local access lines unless explicitly stated otherwise.) Section 4 looks at some the current trends within the market among various industry segments. Section 5 presents the all-important Corporate Profiles (14 in total) that provide a wealth of qualitative and quantitative information including marketing strategy, product development, competitive positioning, bundles, pricing and impacts of regulatory developments. The report is supported by 30 comprehensive Exhibits that examine
line counts, revenues, business and residential analysis, bundling,
and provincial and city-specific data.
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